We need to replace all of the fossil fuel powered electricity generation plants, thousands of them, but we also need to replace cars, gas stoves, water heaters, air conditioners, and more by the billions, and greatly expand electricity distribution networks all over the world. We have to activate many governments by voting and issue activism, but each one of us has individual steps to take, to cut off another slice of Fossil Foolishness.
Cue screaming, which is your cue to do even more of it.
A new report by the Energy Transitions Commission, Fossil Fuels in Transition: Committing to the phase-down of all fossil fuels, says that use of coal, oil and gas must be reduced dramatically by 2050, with reductions starting now.
Fossil fuel-related emissions amount to about 38 Gt of CO2e,[1] of which 6 Gt result from the production, transport, and processing of fossil fuels. These “scope 1 and 2 emissions” can and must be rapidly reduced with CO2 emitted down 55% by 2030, and methane from oil and gas operations down 70% by that date.
But over 80% of fossil-related emissions (~31.5 Gt in 2022) result from the combustion of fossil fuels in use. It is therefore also essential to rapidly phase down the demand for and supply of all fossil fuels. By 2050, coal use can and must fall around 80-85% from 2022 levels, gas by 55-70%, and oil by 75-95%. And this reduction can and must start now, with coal use needing to decrease around 15-30% by 2030, gas by 15-20% and oil by 5-15%.
It is all well started, so that we are at Peak Carbon and Peak Pollution now, and it is all downhill from here. We will achieve those reductions well before 2050. Few market analysts (much less bureaucrats and politicians) have been able to come to grips with exponential growth in renewables, and exponential decline in fossil fuels, thus.
We have seen it over and over—candles→whale oil→kerosene→gas→incandescent lights→LED lights, for example.
So let’s look at each sector where we need to make cuts to the old and build out new.